In Gilmore's Bid for Presidency, Modesty Isn't on the Ticket

January 18, 2007
By Michael D. ShearWashington Post Staff Writer

RICHMOND When the gaggle of presidential wannabes gathers for the first debates later this year, a former Virginia governor could be right up there.

No, it won't be Mark Warner, who shocked the political world by pulling out just when it seemed he was going after the Democratic nomination.

And it won't be George Allen, who lost his luster and his reelection campaign for the U.S. Senate after calling a young Indian American man "macaca" last year.Instead, it will be James S. Gilmore III, the butcher's son who sprinted from local prosecutor to attorney general to governor during the 1990s.

Now, after a half-decade out of office, he has officially declared his intention to run for president in 2008."I believe that this nation needs conservative leadership," he said in a statement that showcased his trademark ego. "Alone among those considering a candidacy for the Republican nomination, I have a record of real leadership as a tax cutter and job creator, as a leader on national security issues, and as a national leader in our party."Across America, the announcement was greeted with the same ho-hum reaction that most of the candidates receive.

Few people outside of Arkansas got terribly excited by the news that the state's former governor Mike Huckabee was thinking about a presidential bid. Fewer still could name the U.S. senator from Kansas who is also a conservative GOP hopeful. (Sam Brownback.)In Richmond, though, Gilmore's presidential plans are all the buzz: Does he really think he can win? If not, what is Gilmore up to? Is he going to run for the U.S. Senate next year? What about governor again in 2009? The answer to the first question appears to be unquestionably yes.

The self-confident former governor simply believes he is the best candidate, and no one is going to tell him otherwise.It's a vital trait for candidates who want to compete at the presidential level. Bill Clinton had it, as did the current President Bush. (It may be that Warner, despite his self-assured appearance, dropped out because he doesn't have that same fire.) Gilmore, associates say, has never heard of self-doubt.So could he win? The conventional wisdom says no. He's unknown outside of Virginia and has largely faded from view in his own state.

To make matters worse, his gubernatorial legacy has been the subject of constant trashing by his Democratic successors and even some of his Republican adversaries in the legislature. To their way of thinking, Gilmore pressed for his famous car-tax cut despite worsening economic times and handed a fiscal crisis to Warner and the General Assembly.What's worse, members of both parties blame Gilmore for much of the state's recent transportation mess. They accuse him of essentially faking the numbers at the Virginia Department of Transportation to make things look rosier than they really were.

During his term, VDOT was beset by cost overruns, political manipulation and management failures.Gilmore denies that. But his public relations effort has been hobbled during the past several years. There's simply no way for a former governor to match the bully pulpit of a current one.Add to that Gilmore's less-than-charismatic style, and it's a wonder that he is even thinking about running again in Virginia, much less the entire country.

But not everyone is so quick to dismiss Gilmore's chances in the presidential ring. As it stands, the Republican presidential field is dominated by political moderates who are trying to remake their image to appeal to conservative primary voters. And each of the front-runners has liabilities.Arizona Sen. John McCain has infuriated conservatives for years and now needs their support.

His backing of a surge in troops in Iraq is also a land mine. Former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani is famously pro-choice and pro-gun-control. And former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has to explain liberal positions he took when running against Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D) a few years back.All of which leaves the field clear for an honest-to-goodness conservative to grab the party's conservative base and run for the finish line.

Gilmore is betting that he could be that person.He was a law-and-order attorney general, a tax-cutting governor and the head of the Republican National Committee before clashing with Karl Rove and Bush. (An exchange that probably earns him brownie points among some voters these days.) In the year before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, he led an anti-terrorism task force that recommended many of the changes that are now being implemented.Gilmore, at least, is convinced that his resume is a winning one. And if it isn't, he will have grabbed headlines that won't hurt as he considers a comeback in his home state in 2008 or 2009.It's hard to see the political downside in that.